RESEARCH STUDIES INTO AIR POLLUTION
    1. Atmospheric transport of Air Pollutants

    2.  

       

      Air pollution problem in Nepal is relatively new concern but immerging problem. There are very few studies in the field of air pollution compared with other countries. As a result, absence of long-term research work to supplement the data source has limited to draw a definite trend on air pollution even in the Kathmandu valley. Thus, unless regular monitoring and meteorological conditions are studied it is difficult to know the transboundary effect of the pollutants. The information on air quality, so far, obtained from different sources provides generic information on air quality situations.

      The sources of air pollutants include transportation, industrial processes, domestic processes etc. A few past studies have provided estimation of the pollutants released into the atmosphere from the above sectors. Transport sector has been considered the most prominent and vital sectors for contributing a major share of air pollutants in urban areas. Air pollution issues that emerge from the industrial sector are confined to certain industrial locations only. (KEC, MOPE, 1999).
       

      1. Transport Sector

      2.  

         

        Emission load from the transport sector was presented in the study report of Dhamala (1983), Sharma and Upadhyaya (1995), Shah and Nagpal (1996), Shrestha and Malla (1996) and Adhikari (1998). Dhamala was first to provide the estimation of emission load from the transport sector in the Kathmandu Valley. It was mentioned in his report that transport sector emitted annually 22,000 tons of carbon monoxide, 200 tons of oxides of nitrogen, 400 tons of hydrocarbons and 333 tons of sulfur dioxide in the Kathmandu Valley. According to the estimation of Sharma and Upadhyaya (1995), a total of 15 tone of lead was emitted considering daily gasoline consumption of about 70 thousand liters for the study year .it suggested that nearly 10 tons of Pb dusts got it way into the atmosphere of the Valley. According to Shah and Nagpal (1997), transport sector contributed a total of 570 tons of total suspended particulate matter of less than ten micron in size and sulfur dioxide in the range of 82495 tons in 1993 in the Kathmandu Valley

        Shrestha and Malla (1996) estimated the annual emission load of the pollutants from the transport sector. It indicated that a total of about 36 thousand tons of pollutants were released in the Kathmandu Valley in 1993. Carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons were the major pollutants released in a large quantity into the atmosphere of the Kathmandu Valley. Emission of carbon monoxide comprised about 65 per cent of the total vehicular emission load. According to the findings of the study, two wheelers were the major contributor of the pollutants and contributed about 56 per cent of the total emissions. Likewise, car and jeep categories of vehicles contributed about 36 per cent of the total pollutants into the atmosphere. According to Shrestha and Malla, transport sector contributed 23,693 tons of CO, 11024 tons of HC, 1353 tons of NOx, 475 tons of TSPs and 133 tons of SO2 in year 1993.

        The latest estimation for the emission loads was available in Adhikari (1998). This study inferred a slightly different result than that of Shrestha and Malla. Transport sector contributed about 31 thousand of pollutants in 1996 from the number of then operating vehicles in the Kathmandu Valley. Carbon monoxide (CO) was the major pollutants and constituted about 60 per cent on the total vehicular emissions. There was about 19 thousand tons of CO emitted from the transport sector in the Valley Other major pollutants were HCs and NOx. Their contributions on the total emissions were 30 per cent and 6 per cent respectively. Among the total vehicle registered, there was about 20 per cent diesel vehicle operating in the Valley. Diesel vehicles contributed about 10 per cent of the total vehicular emissions in the Valley. Gasoline vehicles contributed the remaining 90 per cent pollutants. Carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons were the major pollutants released from the gasoline vehicles, where CO was about 68 per cent and HCs about 30 per cent on the total emissions from the gasoline vehicles. There were small traces of other pollutants, such as NOx, TSPs, SO2 and Pb emitted by the gasoline vehicles.

        Carbon monoxide and HCs constituted 61 per cent and 30 per cent of the total pollutants emission from the transport sector respectively. Total suspended particulate matters (TSPs) constituted about two per cent of the total pollutants emission from the transport sector. Among the vehicle type, motorcycle were the major contributors of HCs, which, alone, contributed more than 80 per cent of HCs. Two wheelers, cars and taxis were the main source of CO emission. Two wheelers contributed 39 per cent on the total TSPs emissions. Table 4.0 shows the details of pollutants emission from the transport sector.

        Table 4.0 Vehicle Emissions in the Kathmandu Valley in 1996 (ton)
         
        Fuel Vehicle TSPs CO HCs NOx SO2 Pb Total
        Diesel Truck 34 137 42 148 20   381
          Bus 83 332 102 360 48   926
          Minibus  61 91 51 526 16   745
          Jeep/car 34 118 50 54 15   271
          Tractor 11 27 15 17 5   75
          3-wheeler 59 88 49 509 15   721
          Total 282 794 310 1,614 119   3,118
        Gasoline Taxi 10 3,107 416 135 7 1 3,675
          Car 15 4,601 616 200 10 1 5,444
          3-wheeler 8 890 556 8 2 1 1,465
          2- wheeler  203 9,732 7,704 28 8 1 17,677
        Total 236 18,330 9,292 372 26 4 28,260
        Total 518 19,124 9,602 1,986 145 4 31,378
        Source: Adhikari, 1998.
         

      3. Industry Sector

      4.  

         

        Industrial pollution survey (IUCN, 1991) revealed that majorities (80 %)of the significant source of industrial pollution were clustered within the three zones in the country: (i) Bagmati Zone (ii) Narayani Zone (iii) Kosi Zone. Balaju Industrial District (BID), which is situated in the Bagmati Zone, was identified as a pollution hot spot due to it high concentration of polluting industries. Smoke from boiler and diesel plant operation was the main source of air pollution in industrial sector (IUCN, 1992). Dust was emitted from various industrial processes such as milling, etc. Overall, the level of air pollution did not appear to be significantly high at the Balaju Industrial District.

        Operation of brick kilns has been considered as a major source of air pollution in the Kathmandu Valley. Brick manufacturing by Bull’s Trench kilns was potentially a significant source of atmospheric emission (Sharma et al., 1995). An estimation indicated that annual emission from a brick factory was at as large as 30 ton of carbon, 80 ton of particulate, 7 ton of NOx and 5 ton of SOx (Bhattaria, 1993). A large number of brick kilns were, thus, the main contributor of air pollutants specially the suspended particles. Brick industries used about 70% of the Valley’s coal supply. Combustion of fuelwood, coal, saw dust, and oil cakes used in firing process released SOx, NOx, HC, CO in the form of smoke, fumes, soot and ash. A single local brick kiln used about 30 ton of coal and 165 tone of fuelwood, and other supplementary energy inputs in one round of firing. Scrap tyre was also used to fire bricks. Sulfur content of rubber in scrape tyre emits very corrosive acid fumes, which condense in and attack flues and chimneys as well as bricks (Devkota, 1993 quoted in ENPHO, 1993). Besides brick and other industries, Himal Cement Factory was another major contributor of air pollutants, specially the dust particles

        Emission load from the industrial sector was also estimated in Shrestha and Malla (1996). Industry sector emitted a total of 12,263 ton of pollutants in year 1993 in the Kathmandu Valley. Brick industries contributed about 64 per cent of the total pollutants and 66 per cent on total TSP emissions from the industrial sector in the valley. Table 4.1 shows the emission load from industrial sector in the Kathmandu Valley in year 1993 (as quoted in KEC, MOPE, 1999).

        Table 4.1 Emission Load from Industrial Sector in 1993(ton)
         
        Source TSPs CO HCs NOx SO2 Total
        Brick 2,346 3,498 649 426 938 7,857
        Cement 615 769 171 127 308 1,990
        Other 613 953 672 75 103 2,416
        Total 3,574 5,220 1,492 628 1,349 12,263
        Source: Shrestha and Malla, 1996
         

      5. Domestic Sector


      Kitchen smoke is another major air pollutant quite common to both rural and urban areas. In rural areas-both in the Terai and the Hills, fuelwood, twigs, leaf litter, and cow-dung mixed with forage and dried in the from of cakes are the common fuels. Used of coals and kerosene are common in relatively well to do families in rural areas. In cities, addition to these fuels, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is also being extensively used. Most of the traditional stove are designed in such a manner that a small portion of heat is actually used with the rest goes waste. A large amount of smoke produced inside the kitchen fills the room causing in door air pollution. Estimation of emission load from the use of fuels in domestic sector is not readily available for the country; however, a few research works were conducted in Kathmandu Valley. Shrestha and Malla (1993) estimated emission of air pollutants from energy used in domestic sector in the Kathmandu Valley. It indicated that about 14 thousand ton of pollutants were released into the atmosphere from the domestic sector. Kerosene and LPG were the major fuels used in urban areas while, kerosene and firewood comprised the major share of the fuels used in rural areas. Firewood as a major household fuel contributed over 50 per cent of the total emission load from the domestic sector in the Valley. Likewise, CO emission constituted about 85 per cent of the total emission load (as quoted in KEC, MOPE, 1999).

      The analysis from ENPHO (1993) study of the first part indicates only TSP and PM10 value exceeds the WHO guidelines. This study gives the state of ambient air quality of the area. Highest concentration of TSP and PM10 was found in Chabahil, this area has comparatively dusty roads. This shows the potential adverse impact of particulates.

      In the second part, samples were collected from roadside at respirable height during the peak traffic hour of the day. All the pollutants found were in higher concentration than the first part. This implies the pollutants are greater concentration in the daytime and nearby where they are released i.e. roads. The pollutants are slowly dispersed in the night and to the farther places diluting the effect off the road and the ambient air. This draw the conclusion that pollutants are mainly due to vehicles and people are more exposed to pollution when they are in the vicinity of roads in the daytime. The main draw back of this study is completely different sites are taken in both the parts making it not comparable.

      KVVECP (1993) study measured TSP, PM10, SO2 and NO2 from September to December 1993. In this study 14 location in different sites viz. industrial, residential, traffic and control were measured for 4 to 22 days in each site. This was done to identify the emission source strength of pollutants and to know the exact concentration of air pollutants available in the atmosphere. Except for the control site concentration of TSP, PM10 at all the localities either exceeds or approaching the WHO guideline value. Although, a very simple relation can be developed from this limited finding, that the susceptibility of air pollutants is higher around commercial areas. The higher incidence of pollutants around commercial areas also justifies this argument that the vehicles are one of the pollution source of the valley. But, the dispersion mechanism has not been considered.

      DHM has been continuously monitoring TSP at the height of 15m above the ground. This result gives a clear picture of rise in the TSP level in the dry season. With the approach of rainy season the level of TSP gradually reduces. As Kathmandu is a valley, it is more vulnerable in the winter season due to the temperature inversion.

      NESS under ADB TA 2847-NEP study determined the level of pollutants in the ambient air and the conditions of prevailing meteorology, which indicates whether the pollutants are going to be diluted or concentrated at a particular time and region. A definite upward trend is seen in both TSP and PM10 concentration during all cycles of the measurement. There is, however declining tendency of the gaseous pollutants from winter (December) towards summer (April) which is in contrast to TSP and PM10 indicating that the sources of gaseous pollutants and dust may not be essentially related to each other.

      Taking into account of the valley specific meteorological conditions, generally south-easternly wind prevails in the morning after the calm period in the early morning and the nighttime. The speed reaches up to 2m/sec, which increases up to 5-7m/sec during March through May. The wind direction then changes through south, S-W and westerly after noon and afterwards, when the speed also get increased to approximately 5m/sec and at about 2 PM, may reach even up to 15m/sec during March to May. The northerly wind from beyond the Himalaya is virtually blocked by the high mountains in the north of the valley (NESS, ADB TA 2847/MOPE, 1999).

      The above described diurnal variation of wind speed and direction with little changes from day to day can be taken as valley specific meteorological conditions. Thus, during winter and non-monsoon time the valley sky generally remains clear for most of day and night which permits significant solar heating during daytime and rapid cooling during nighttime, thus bringing about a significantly large diurnal temperature variation difference of about 1500c.

      During the night, cold and dense air settles down to the valley floor bringing with it the dust and gaseous pollutants contained in the air. The morning sun destabilizes the surface air and the warm air along with the pollutants vents up initiating a strong conventional air current, which act efficiently to disperse the pollutants up in to the sky. Such meteorological conditions generally prevail during dry summer time when the wind speed is sufficiently high. In winter time, the morning destabilizing effect of the ground level air normally remains weak and at times, may act in a reverse way bringing about temperature inversion and if this phenomenon prevails for longer time pollutants in the ground level atmosphere may suddenly rise due to their continuing accumulation and damage to the environment including the human health may be extensive (NESS, ADB TA 2847/MOPE, 1999).

      NESS has pointed out the cause of particulate emission due to dusty condition of the road, haphazard solid waste disposal practices, orientation of sampling sites and the change of various climatic conditions.

      Under the same project Soil Test also conducted monitoring in five sites. Monitoring sites were fixed; assuming the period of monitoring wind direction is from west to east so that the pollutants would be swept to Bhaktapur and Thimi from the Kathmandu city. This came to be true as Bhaktapur and Thimi though there is very little vehicular traffic PM10, TSP was found higher than WHO guideline value. Analysis of PM10 found out that Hydrocarbon was the main component in PM10. This justifies that dust particles settles easily but hydrocarbon does not settle unless there is heavy rain to wash it down (Table 4.2). Thus, the high hydrocarbon could be the result of the meteorological condition where the valley had experienced unusual long dry period of over seven month during the time of measurement.

      Table 4.2 Analysis of PM10
       
      Location m g/m3, March 1999
      Total PM10 PM10 carbon PM10 dust
      Thimi 190.50 123.88 66.59
      Bhaktapur 170.81 117.62 53.19
      Battisputali 169.79 118.12 51.67
      Kalimati 161.33 128.12 33.21
      Balaju 181.60 153.92 27.84

      Source: Soil test, 1999

      Research on air pollution has not been carried out systematically in Nepal due to the a lacking of an appropriate air quality management system. Observations made on most of the studies are not inter-comparable. Analysis of historical data on ambient air pollution levels, however, warrants an urgent need for ambient air quality monitoring program to define the actual status of the problem.
       

    3. NATIONAL AIR QUALTY CRITERIA AND STANDARDS
Standard setting in Nepal is still in initial stage. The adoption of air quality standards requires the weighing up of many different interests and therefore the policy decision. The air quality criteria are primarily based on laboratory finding and hence change as new scientific information and evidence become available. Air quality criteria are an essential step in providing a quantitative basis for air quality standards. Standards, unlike criteria, are prescriptive. They prescribe the pollutants level that cannot be legally exceeded during a specific time period in a specific geographical region. Basically air quality criteria are cause-effect relationship of the effects of air pollution on human health vegetation, materials and environment itself. To decide the standards, knowledge of technical, social, financial, legal and institutional implication is also required. One should ideally have available a complete set of dose-response curves for different types of populations exposed. One of the major consideration on deciding the air quality standards for developing countries is that most of the required information are non-existent. It costs a significant amount of resources and time to acquire the information necessary for establishing air quality standard. The proposed standards in Nepal is somewhat established arbitrarily. These standards may be not necessarily promising, nor based on sound scientific knowledge and information at the beginning. The following basic approach had been adopted on deciding the standard: There are various approaches for standard setting, viz. Survival, Cost-benefit, Aesthetic approach. Among them, a cost-benefit approach seems better in the case of a developing country like ours. Standard setting for ambient air quality is to be performed only after detailed risk assessment of particular parameters on receptors. As this kind of study is yet to be conducted in the context of Nepal, several assumptions were made before deriving the values as the proposed standards. A comparison was also made with standard and guideline values of other organizations (US, WHO, India, Thailand). The assumptions are: Based on the above assumptions standards values for five criteria pollutants (SPM, CO, NO2, SO2 and Pb) were recommended which is shown in table 4.3. AQS values for photochemical oxidants (PAN, O3, HC) would be developed in the later stage. (KEC, 1999)

Table 4.3 Proposed Standard Values
 
Parameters Avg. time Proposed Standard Values Monitoring method
Pokhara Kathmandu Biratnagar
SPM ug/m3 24hr 100 150 200 HVS or beta-attenuation method
8hr 125 175 225
CO mg/m3 8hr 5 10 10 Non-dispersive IR analyser (NDIR)
1hr 20 30 30
NO2 ug/m3 24hr 100 120 120 Colorimetric method using NaOH
8hr 200 250 250
1hr 250 300 300
SO2 ug/m3 24hr 100 125 150 UV-fluorescent method or acidimetric method
8hr 150 175 200
1hr 200 250 300
Pb ug/m3 1 month 1.0 1.0 1.0 AAS method
Source: KEC/MOPE, 1999.
 

The above is the recently proposed national standard. These standards still have to be incorporated into Environmental Protection Guidelines as authorized by the Act. Then the compliance of these standards would be easier. Penalty measures should also be stated clearly in case of violation from the related party or parties.

    1. IMPACTS OF AIR POLLUTION

    2.  

       

      The harmful effects of atmospheric pollution are widespread and varied. There is no doubt whatever that atmospheric pollution is in the concentrations in which it has been allowed to occur, particularly in urban areas, caused damage to property and made living conditions generally less pleasant. Concentration sometimes occurred which could be held directly responsible for immediate serious damage to plants animals. Increased road traffic has enhanced NOx concentrations increasing the incidence of photochemical smogs, depletion of ozone layer and disruption of stability of the global climate due to the increase of CO2.
       

      1. Health

      2.  

         

        Adverse effects of air pollutants on human health can be acute or chronic. Acute effects manifest themselves immediately upon short-term exposure to high concentration of air pollutants whereas chronic effects become evident only after continuos exposure to low levels of pollutants.

        Pollution can enter the body through a number of ways. They can cause skin and eye irritation; particulate matter may be swallowed as a result of respiratory cleansing action. However, the primary mode of transfer of pollutants to the human body is through the respiratory system.

        Leaders conducted a survey of air pollution among children in Kathmandu based on the secondary data collected from Kanti Children Hospital, the only public hospital of children in Kathmandu. Cases like pneumonia, URTI, ARI, Asthma, Bronchitis, Chest infection, LRTI, Koch disease, wheezing cough and chest and Post measles pneumonia was considered for analysis. Both indoor and outdoor patients for the year 1996/97 were used for the analysis.

        From the preliminary screening of medical records from the hospital it had been found that urban residents exceeded the number of respiratory related cases in the hospital compared to that from the rural areas from Kathmandu. This may be due to the deteriorating air quality in the urban centers. This is only assumption based; further detail study has to be conducted for the analysis.

        According to the morbidity health status published by DoHS/HMGN (1997), respiratory came among the top five disease accounting for eight percent of population reporting the case of acute respiratory infection (ARI). Figure 4.0 shows the reported ARI incidence in 1996/97. Respiratory disease has been largely dependent on the prolong exposure of smoke and dust (CBS, 1996). ARI continued to be the leading to be the leading cause to death among young children, accounting for more than 30 percent death in children under five years of age (Niruala, 1998).

        Pandey and Basnet (1987) have found a strong co-relation between the prevalence of chronic bronchitis and indoor smoke pollution in Nepal. It was further reported that 31 percent of the bronchitis cases were due to indoor smoke pollution in Jumla district, 17 percent in Sundarijal and Bhadrabas of the Kathmandu district, 13 percent in Parasauni of the Bara district, and 11 percent in urban Kathmandu. Reid et al. (1986) indicated that twice as many traditional cookstove owners than improved cookstove owners complained the problems of eye irritation and coughing.

        URBAIR has estimated health impacts assessing using dose-response relations derived in US and air quality model developed for Kathmandu Valley. Key data are excess mortality totaling 85 cases, and the number of respiratory symptom days at about 1.5 million. Table 4.4 combines dose-response relationship with frequency distribution of PM10 exposure to derive total numbers of people impacted by various types of pollution.

        An analysis of the marginal impacts of emission increase and reduction by source categories showed that health impacts are mostly affected by developments in the transport sector, while domestic sources and risk manufacturing rank second in this respect.

        Table 4.4. Impacts on mortality and health in Kathmandu Valley
         
        Types of health impact
        Number of cases
        Excess mortality
        84
        Chronic bronchitis
        506
        Restricted activity days
        475,298
        Emergency room visits
        1,945
        Bronchitis in children
        4847
        Asthma
        18,863
        Respiratory symptoms days
        1,512,689
        Respiratory hospital admissions
        99
        Source: URBAIR 1996
         


         

      3. Vegetation

      4. ENPHO 1999 reported that Himal Cement has caused a negative impact on vegetation in the surrounding area. Some observations made were foliar injury; low yield of crops due to photosynthetic disturbance as the dust deposition on leaves; hard soil due to calcium deposition which affects germination of seeds; straw of rice, wheat, barley is not palatable to the animals because of the cement dust. Among the plants Pinus roxburghii is the most affected one due to resiniferous nature. Problems like low visibility and poor sunlight in winter is also associated with dust from Himal Cement.
         

      5. Others


      Air pollution in Kathmandu is also causing damage to many historical buildings that represent the cultural heritage of Kathmandu valley. Acid formed as a result of various sulphurous and nitrous oxides reacting with water can damage fine wood carving, marble and metallic exteriors common to many historical buildings in Kathmandu. The damage to cultural heritage not only deprives the residents of a proud past, it also can negatively impact on tourist trade, an important contributor to Valley’s economy (Adhikari 1998).

      Atmospheric visibility data from Kathmandu airport analyzed 1970 onward shows that there has been a very substantial decrease in the visibility in the valley since 1980. The number of days with good visibility (>8000m) around noon has decreased in the winter months from more than 25 days per month in 1970 to 5 days per month in 1992/93.
       

    3. FUTURE TRENDS IN EMITTING SOURCES AND EMISSION
Population and environment are interrelated phenomenon. Population is the major agent that leads to environmental changes. The increasing population growth affects demand for basic needs for human being and the supply aspect to fulfill this demand exerts more pressure on existing environment. According to the 1991 census total population of the country is 18491097. During 1981-91, the average annual growth rate was 2.10 percent (Env. Comp.1998). If this trend continues the projection will be as shown in table 4.5.

Table 4.5 Population Projection
 
Year
Total Nepal
Kathmandu
Latipur
Bhaktapur
1991
18491097
     
1996
20831644
804039
292196
193395
2001
23453019
946569
331212
216328
2006
26284018
1097855
373061
241175
2011
29234040
1250871
416352
267220
2016
32202975
1397368
459527
293688
Source: MoPE
 

Urbanization offers both an opportunity and challenges for national development. With such developmental pace, transport becomes an important requirement. However these services demand more intense use of energy and resources that may procreate conflict between man and nature. Adhikari (1997) has projected the number of future vehicles based on the present economy scenario and development trends.

The trend for the future vehicle growth is shown in table 4.6. The vehicles will grow at the rate of 7.3 percent per year in future. Motorcycle will grow at the highest rate (7.8 percent per year) followed by cars (7.0 percent per year). Other vehicles are expected to increase at a bit slower rate as were experienced in the past. Government imposed ban on further registration of 3-wheeler in the valley. It is practical to assume that most of the passengers who would be getting the service of 3-wheeler, will shift to minibus, hence the 3-wheelers number goes decreasing. Thus, there will be more than 500 thousands vehicles registered by 2020 in the valley, of which 2-wheeler comprise about 67 percent of the total vehicles (Adhikari, 1997).

Table 4.6 Present and Forecasted Number of Vehicles in Kathmandu Valley
 
Vehicles 1996 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Bus 1283  1594 2100 2788 3779 5270
Minibus 1558 1634(1888) 1751(2343) 1904(2855) 2107(3450) 2385(4156)
Truck 4620 5647 7278 9409 12203 15881
Tractor 1674 2065 2724 3595 4748 6273
Car/Jeep 28131 37007 52148 73410 103420 145768
3wheeler 3866 4761(3240) 6160(2608) 7805(2099) 9747(1689) 11983(1359)
2wheeler 61594 83427 121557 176298 254921 367376
Total 102726 136135 193718 275209 390925 554936
Total   (134868) (190758) (270454) (384210) (546083)
Source: Adhikari, 1997.

 
Numbers in parenthesis are future vehicles with adjustment
With the sharp rise in vehicle number, demand for commercial fuel is also in the steep rise. The demand for commercial fuel is increasing at the annual rate of approximately 15%. Nepal Oil Corporation distributed motor gasoline and high speed diesel oil 41,191 kl and 250,504 kl respectively in 1996, out of which about 35000 kl of motor gasoline and 52,530 kl of HSD were consumed in the valley (Khadka, 1996 as quoted in Adhikari 1997). Future gasoline demand is estimated applying the same approach as taken in calculating the gasoline demand for the year 1996. Table 4.7 shows the future petroleum oil demand. The growing demand for fuel will emit undesirable load of atmospheric pollutants. There were about 31 thousands tons of pollutants emitted by the transport sector in the Kathmandu valley in 1996. It is expected to reach to 53 thousand in the year 2020. Exhaust emission of TSPs is expected to increase by 1.36 percent per year. Similarly, CO HC, NOx and SO2 are expected to increase by 2.5 percent 1.8 percent and 0.88 percent and 1.65 percent per year respectively. There will be overall increase of the level of the pollutants at the rate of 2.2 percent per year. Table 4.8 illustrates the emission level of different pollutants in various years in the Kathmandu valley (Adhikari, 1997).

Table 4.7 Future Fuel Demand of Transportation Sector
 
Fuel/ year 1996 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Diesel
41191
29641
30569
31705
33336
35715
Gasoline
25504
26065
29343
33213
38012
44076
Source: Adhikari, 1997.
 

Transport sector emitted about 125 thousands tons of Co2 equivalent GHG emission in the valley in 1996. Burning diesel oil contributes about 63 percent GHG emissions of transport sector in the valley. Table 4.9 Illustrates future GHG emission from transport sector.

Table 4.8 Vehicle Emission for the Future (tons)
 
Year
TSP
CO
HC
NOx
SO2
Pb
1996
518
19120
9602
1986
145
-
2000
539
20898
10284
1998
151
5
2005
571
23507
11247
2044
161
5
2010
609
26561
12314
2125
174
6
2015
657
30186
13513
2257
192
7
2020
717
34496
14852
2456
215
8
Source: Adhikari, 1997.
 

Table 4.9 Future GHG Emission from Transport Sector (tons)
 
Year
CO2
CH4
N2O
CO2 equivalent
2000
127225
35.1
7.9
131569
2005
135597
39.3
8.5
140368
2010
145592
44.06
9.3
150879
2015
158585
50.14
10.2
164498
2020
175872
57.87
11.37
182588
Source: Adhikari, 1996.

Shrestha and Malla (1996) estimated total emissions in 2013 to be about five times than those of 1993. Estimated values of sectoral emission in 2013 are shown in table 4.10. More than two thirds of the increase will be contributed by the transportation sector, about one sixth by the industrial sector and about 10% by the household and commercial sectors.

Table 4.10 Sectoral Emission for Kathmandu Valley in 2013 (tons)
 
Sector TSP CO HCs NOx SO2 Pb Total
Transport 3,441

(477)

141,981

(23,693)

90,238

(11024)

6,015

(1354)

693

(130)

32

-

242,400

(36,678)

Household 4,809

(2,383)

19,512

(9,856)

2549

(1,277)

443

(213)

963

(505)

-

-

28,275

(14,234)

Industrial 11,113

(3,575)

16,542

(5,221)

4,488

(1,493)

1,943

(628)

4,143

(1,349)

-

-

38,229

(12,266)

Commercial 54

(25)

535

(233)

25

(11)

12

(7)

7

(5)

-

-

634

(281)

Total 19,417

(6460)

178,570

(39003)

97,300

(13805)

8,413

(2202)

5,806

(1989)

32

(-)

309,538

(63459)

Source: Shrestha and Malla, 1996

 
Number in parenthesis shows for the year 1993.