Air pollution does not respect sub-regional
or national boundaries. So, cost
effective approaches to reducing air pollution must deal with whole regions,
integrating technological, economic, meteorological, and
ecological data.
To date, the Pak-EPA has not undertaken any regional air pollution transport modeling. However, it recognizes the need to study the transport of pollution within Pakistan and across its international boundary. The following two models are under review for use in Pakistan:
1. The RAINS-Asia (Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation) Model developed by the International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Austria. Experts at the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission have used this model previously and possess the required skill and experience to operate it
2. The MATCH (Multiple-scale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry modeling system) developed by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute.
The Pak-EPA will select an appropriate model once it has developed a deeper understanding of sub-regional air pollution.
Scattered studies on the impacts of air pollution have been carried out in various educational and research organizations. However, a coordinated effort is required between academicians and researchers to identify areas where air pollution impact studies are needed.
The following air pollution related studies are proposed to be undertaken:
1. Research on appropriate ambient air quality standards for Pakistan
Any of the ambient air quality guidelines or standards recommended by international agencies such as European Union and the World Health Organization (see Appendix C) can be the starting point. However, before implementing these, the current level of non-compliance, the capacity of the nation to meet those standards in the foreseeable future, and the economic and financial cost of abatement measures shall be evaluated. Realistic targets may also be identified to reduce the pollution level to the desired standard in a gradual manner.
2. Air quality in industrial zones
Industrial zones may pose a difficult challenge. It is possible that the industries in large industrial zones may be complying with the emission standards but the concentration of pollutants in the ambient air around the industrial zone may still exceed the desired standards. In such cases, a mechanism may have to be developed through which the industries are required to reduce their emissions. The mechanism should be fair to all stakeholders.
3. Effects on human health
Specific studies to assess the direct health impacts of air pollution will be undertaken. The emphasis of such studies will be on situations that are unique to Pakistan or the South Asia.
4. Corrosion of materials
The effects of air pollution on national monuments and other structures of national interest will be studied.
5. Vegetation and crop damage
There is evidence that agricultural productivity in Pakistan is being seriously affected by air pollution. This aspect needs to be studied urgently.
The following procedure is proposed for assessing the impacts of air pollution:
1. Constitute a core group of eminent researchers (six to eight) on air pollution. The group would:
c Identify areas where information or knowledge gaps exist and further studies are required
c Identify organizations and research groups within Pakistan that have the capacity to undertake the required studies
c Identify and coordinate with organizations that have the means to fund these studies
c Act as a peer review group for the studies conducted on air pollution.
2. Appoint a person as secretary to the group. The secretary will be responsible for managing the research paper database and the networking information on the air pollution experts.
3. An
information resource center will be established at the Pak-EPA, Islamabad. The resource center will collect and store
all research conducted on air quality issues of Pakistan. The information will be scanned and made
available to researchers and interested persons thorough
the Internet.
The RAINS-ASIA atmospheric transport model described in Section 4.1 is also suitable for assessing the impacts of various abatement options on the ambient air quality and the effects of pollution. The model can evaluate various user-defined scenarios of emission and control strategies (for specific fuel types, economic sectors, individual large emission sources, or emission control technologies) and assess the emissions from any energy scenario (predefined or user-modified) to:
a Estimate the current costs and impacts of alternative emission control strategies
a Estimate future costs and impacts
a Calculate emissions and deposition levels for each strategy
a Assess the potential impacts of emissions on critical ecosystems
A Microsoft Excel® based evaluation model can also be developed on the same principles.
Pressure variables are population growth, growth in economy, and, consequently, growth in energy demand. An emissions inventory is developed on the basis of the pressure variables. The ‘base case’ is defined as the business-as-usual scenario where the policy regarding energy or emissions does not change. Various scenarios can then be defined. Options for reducing emissions range from measures that address the fuel quality (including switching to cleaner fuels and improving the quality of fuels to reduce emissions), rationalization of fuel prices to provide incentives for efficient fuel use, adoption of technologies that reduce emissions at source, and energy efficiency measures that reduce emissions through reduction in the quantities of fuel used. A scenario in which one or more of the following options are considered may be defined:
c Substituting high sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) with natural gas
c Using low sulfur fuel oil instead of high sulfur fuel oil (LSFO)
c Reducing sulfur content of diesel fuel
c Phasing-out lead content in gasoline
c Substituting coal with natural gas in the brick industry
c Substituting fuel wood with LPG in the domestic sector
a Emission controls in power generation
a Advanced emission controls in transportation sector
a Demand side management and energy efficiency in transportation, industry, agriculture, domestic and commercial sectors
a Promoting renewables
a Developing legislation and enforcing regulations.
The cost of implementing the options, potential reduction in emissions, improvement in ambient air quality, and the change in impacts can be calculated. Information can then be used to compare various options.
Another model that has been used in Pakistan previously to assess the impacts of abatement options for the greenhouse gas is the Long-Range Energy Alternate Planning System (LEAP).[1]
The Pak-EPA will ultimately be responsible for compiling information on air pollution and its impacts. The information will be provided to the stakeholders within the country and to counterpart implementing agencies of the Malé Declaration in other South Asian countries.
An annual state of the air quality report will be produced by the
Environmental Protection AgencyPak-EPA. The report will cover the following topics:
a Emissions inventory
a Results of ambient air quality monitoring
a Policy and legislative developments
a Research conducted
a Analysis and future projections
a Meteorological information
A website dedicated to the air pollution issue will be developed. The Pak-EPA has already developed its website (URL: www.environment.gov.pk) which can also be used to store, manage, catalogue, and disseminate data and research on air pollution. The type of information stored on the website will include the following:
a State of the air quality report
a National emissions inventory
a Ambient air quality data
a Research papers on air quality
a Meteorological information.
The information will be accessible to all interested persons. The website will also be used for networking among the air quality experts in the country.