3. Monitoring and Evaluation

3.1 National Pollutant Monitoring Network

3.1.1 Current Status

The incipient nature of environmental regulation and management in Pakistan’s industry is reflected in the lack of a proper, comprehensive, and effective air quality monitoring capability that can be used to track and address specific instances of air pollution and air quality degradation.The current air quality monitoring framework and facilities, —~~to the extent that they~~ such as exist, —are wholly inadequate ~~both~~ in scale, technical capacity, and operational methods.They cannotto meet actual requirements, given the country’s overall economic, production and population base.

At present, any systematic and technical monitoring of air pollution in Pakistan is limited to isolated instances where the means, resources, and corporate or political willingness are available and have been combined to establish sound environmental management and monitoring regimes.These cases are typically localized to plant- or company-wide activities.Industry, region, or countrywide implementation of air quality monitoring practices does not exist.

3.1.2 Existing Capabilities

The existing capability of for air pollution monitoring is primarily limited to three mobile air quality monitoring stations and some other portable equipment, owned and operated by various public sector organizations.The mobile stations are operated by the following organizations:

aPunjab Environmental Protection Department, Lahore

aPakistan Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, Karachi

aPakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission, Karachi.

These mobile stations are generally equipped with instruments to measure all common gaseous pollutants (nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide, and ground-level ozone).

3.1.3 Need for Air Quality Monitoring

Emissions of pollutants from fuel combustion and other processes are well known. Various studies have also measured the effect of the emissions on the ambient air quality in urban areas of Pakistan.Additionally, a few researchers have studied the impacts of the pollutants on human health, plants and structures.However, data collected in this manner is not sufficient to develop a comprehensive picture of the state of the air quality and its impacts.Therefore, it is imperative that air quality monitoring networks be established in selected cities of the country.Such networks are needed for:

aEstablishing the baseline air quality for the purpose of environmental assessments of development projects

aDetermining the exposure levels of citizens to harmful air pollutants

aAssessing the potential damage to vegetation, structures, and material from air pollutants

aDetermining the background pollution levels for application in industrial zoning or town planning

aValidating and fine-tuning atmospheric dispersion models

aEvaluating impacts of policies for mitigation and abatement of air pollution

aAssessing transport of pollution across provincial and international boundaries.

3.1.4 Objectives of the Air Quality Monitoring Networks

The objective of the air quality monitoring networks will be to measure the concentration of key atmospheric pollutants—sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, ozone, carbon monoxide, inhalable particulate matter (diameter less than 10 micron) and total suspended particulates—on a regular basis and in a manner that:

aDaily, seasonal and long-term changes in pollutant concentration can be tracked

aThe average concentration of pollutants in urban areas can be established with a reasonable level of confidence

aComparisons can be drawn with the ambient air quality standards.

3.1.5 Location of Proposed Monitoring Networks

Ambient air quality monitoring networks will be initially established in six cities.Exhibit 3.1 provides some basic information on the environmental conditions of these cities.Karachi and Lahore,~~being~~the two largest cities,~~also~~ have the most industries and vehicles.After Lahore and Karachi, Rawalpindi-Islamabad has the largest number of vehicles in the country.Peshawar and Quetta are located in semi-enclosed valleys that restrict dispersion of pollutants.These cities, despite having fewer pollution sources than several other larger cities, have reportedly the most degraded air quality in the country.

3.1.6 Location of Sensors

While designing a monitoring network, the location of sensors in urban areas plays a key role in the quality of the information collected.There are three design philosophies used for locating sensors:

aLocating sensors on a uniform grid throughout the urban area

aLocating sensors at locations where pollutant concentrations are expected to be high

aLocating sensors in proportion to the population density.

Exhibit3.1: Environmental Conditions in Major Cities of Pakistan

City	Population ('000)	Setting	Annual Average Wind Speed	Estimated Number of Vehicles per 1000 Persons	Major Pollution Sources
Karachi	9,269	Coastal	2.7 m/s	109	Vehicles, Industries
Lahore	5,063	Plain	1.0 m/s	105	Vehicles, Industries
Faisalabad	1,977	Plain	1.0 m/s	111	Vehicles, Industries
Rawalpindi-Islamabad	1,931	Plateau	0.9 m/s	133	Vehicles, Brick kilns, waste burning
Peshawar	988	Valley	1.2 m/s	170	Vehicles, Industries
Quetta	560	Valley	1.7 m/s	144	Vehicles

There are inherent advantages and disadvantages in each of these design philosophies.Exhibit 3.2 compares their various features ~~of the three design philosophies~~.The selection of the design depends on the purpose of the air quality monitoring and the available resources.

Exhibit3.2: Features of Different Designs of Monitoring Networks

Sensor Location	No. of Sensors Required	Type of Data Generated	Other Features
On a uniform grid	Highest	Average concentration of the urban area	Easily designed
At a high concentration point	Lowest	Maximum concentration in the urban areas	Useful for establishing compliance with ambient air quality standards or otherwise
In proportion to population distribution	Intermediate	Average exposure of the urban population to the pollutant	Reliable information on population distribution is required Localized pockets of high concentration areas may be missed

At the incipient stage, the objective of the monitoring is to track the changes in the air quality as a result of changes in the pressure variables (number of vehicles and industry) so that a trend can be established.This information can be used later to monitor the effects of the air pollution abatement measures.For this purpose, it is suggested that the sensors be located in an area where the concentration of the pollutants is expected to be highest and exceeds the recommended ambient air quality standards.

Such locations can include the central business districts, industrial zones, densely populated residential sectors, and traffic hot spots.A few sensors may also have to be located in relatively cleaner parts of the cities to provide the background concentration levels.

3.1.7 Selection of Sampling Site

Selection of the sampling site depends on the purpose of the monitoring and the geometry of the location.When the data is collected to determine area-wide pollutant averages, the sampler inlet might best be located in an open area, for example, a park or a vacant plot.On the other hand, if the physiological impact of the exposure is a prime consideration, the sampler inlet should be at or near the breathing level of the people exposed.

In our case, the prime objective is to determine the area-wide concentration of pollutants.The identification of a representative air mass and extraction of representative sample from the air mass poses a challenge.The sampling site should be as close as possible to the ideal location.The selection is complicated by the shelter effects of tall buildings, canyon effects of streets, accessibility, and security issues.

For selection of the sampling site, it is recommended that:

aThe sample ~~should~~ be located in an open space within a distance of 10-15 meters from a street intersection

aIn general, samples ~~should~~ be drawn from a standard height of 5 meters from the ground level, wherever possible

aIf open spaces are not available, the sensor ~~may~~ be located on the roof of a two-storey building, provided it is not sheltered by other structures.

3.1.8 Monitoring Method

A combination of monitoring methods may be used.These include:

aAutomated, continuous sampling through fixed monitoring stations

aAutomated, continuous sampling through mobile monitoring stations for a selected number of days

aStatic monitoring through passive samplers.

Fixed monitoring stations provide the most reliable and extensive air quality data.These are the hearts of the monitoring network.Site selection for these stations requires careful attention to meteorology, structures in the vicinity of the site, local development plans, major pollution sources in the vicinity of the site, and security issues.Once established, it is difficult to move the station to another site.

Mobile stations consist of measuring instruments mounted in air-conditioned trailers or vans.The advantage of these stations is that they can be moved easily between locations.

Passive samplers are based on molecular diffusion of gases through the sampler inlet.The gas molecules are collected on an impregnated filter or an absorbent material.The samplers are left at the sampling location for one to four weeks.After this they are sent to qualified laboratories for analysis.

3.1.9 Proposed Networks

Six air quality monitoring networks are proposed in six cities of the country.The proposed number of stations, monitoring methods, frequency, pollutants to be monitored and the averaging times are shown in Exhibit 3.3.

Exhibit3.3: Proposed Design of the Monitoring Networks

Monitoring Method and Frequency	Number of Stations						Pollutant	Averaging Time
	Karachi	Lahore	Rawalpindi-Islamabad	Peshawar	Quetta	Faisalabad		Annual	24-hour	1-hour
Fixed, automated station; continuous data collection	1	1	1	1	1	1	NO_X	†	†	†
							TSP, PM₁₀	†	†
							O₃		†	†
							SO₂	†	†
							CO		†	†
Mobile stations; two in Karachi, one in other cities; 24-hour data collection at each location twice every month	8	4	3	2	2	3	NO_X		†	†
							TSP, PM₁₀		†
							O₃		†	†
							SO₂		†
							CO		†	†
Static monitoring through passive samplers	8	4	3	2	2	3	NO_X	†
Static monitoring through passive samplers							SO₂	†	†

3.1.10 Quality Assurance and Quality Control

Quality assurance means developing a system of activities to ensure that measurements meet defined standards of quality with a stated level of confidence.The quality assurance plan will include clearly defined monitoring objectives, quality control procedures, and quality assessment.

Quality control will include protocols (including standard operating procedures and record keeping) for site operation and equipment maintenance; protocols for equipment calibration; site visit schedules; protocols for data inspection, review, validation, and usage.Quality assessment will include schedules for audits and reports.

To ensure consistency and uniformity, all monitoring networks will be operated under the same quality assurance and quality control procedures.

3.1.11 Data Management

Uniform data recording and storage protocols will be developed for all networks.Once the data is validated through the quality assurance protocol, it will be transmitted to a central data bank located in the Pak-EPA, Islamabad.Data in the central data bank will be stored electronically on hard disks and magnetic tapes.Air quality data from the central data bank will be available through the Internet to all interested persons and organizations.

3.1.12 Implementation

Implementation will require the following actions:

1.Constitution of a technical committee

2.Preliminary study to assess needs and finalize basic design

3.Identification and mobilization of existing resources

4.Establishment of institutional arrangements for coordination among various agencies

5.Evaluation of regulatory issues

6.Finalization of budget and procurement of funds

7.Detailed design of the network

8.Procurement of equipment

9.Training of personnel

10.Development of quality assurance and quality control

11.Establishment of databank for data storage.

The following agencies will be involved in the implementation process:

aPakistan Environmental Protection Agency

aProvincial Environmental Protection Agency

aPakistan Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, Karachi

aPakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission, Karachi.

aPakistan Atomic Energy Commission.

3.2 National Emission Inventories

3.2.1 Current Status

A national emissions inventory for air pollutants has been developed as part of the implementation of the Malé Declaration.During this process,a number of difficulties were encountered in identifying data sources, and obtaining data.In many cases, data was either not publicly available or was available in a form that could not be readily used for developing the emissions inventory.This has resulted in gaps in the inventory or may have produced large uncertainties in the data.

3.2.2 Existing Data Sources

Data for developing the emissions inventory for Pakistan was obtained from a number of sources.The data is compiled by various public sector organizations.Data sources, frequency of publication, the organizations responsible for developing them, the adequacy of the data for developing the inventory, and the gaps in information are discussed in Exhibit 3.4.

Exhibit 3.4: Status of Source Data for Emissions Inventory

Data Type	Publication (Publication Frequency)	Responsible Organization	Comments on Usability of Data and Gaps
Fossil Fuel Consumption	Pakistan Energy Yearbook (regular)	Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan	Accurate data on countrywide basis Similar data on regional basis is not available
Biofuels Consumption	No regular reporting	-	No reliable information on current and historical consumption of fossil fuel is available
Vehicular Population	Economic Survey (annual, regular) and Transport Statistics	Finance Division and National Transport Research Center	Detailed data by region is not available Updated information on fuel consumption and distance traveled is not available Clear definition of vehicle categories is not available Limited information on vehicle distribution by fuel type
Industrial Production	Economic Survey (annual, regular), Census of Manufacturing Industries, Industry Associations Reports	Finance Division, Production Division, and Industry Associations	Only limited data is available.Information on fuel consumption, raw material consumption and production of individual plants is not easily available
Agriculture (Livestock Population)	Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan (not very regular)	Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock	Information on commercial poultry population is not available

A second component of the emissions inventory is developing country-specific emission factors.No country-specific emission factors are readily available.Some of these can be ~~readily~~ developed easily, for example, the sulfur content in fossil fuels, but several others will require actual measurements and research.

3.2.3 Need for Emissions Inventory

The emissions inventory is essentially a planning tool for air pollution abatement measures.The ~~emissions~~inventory provides estimates of emissions of various pollutants from different sources, processes, sectors, and regions.Estimates are required to track changes in the emissions in response to new developments and policy measures for air pollution abatement.An accurate inventory can be used ~~for~~ to evaluat~~ing~~e and compar~~ing~~e the impacts of various policy options on future emission levels,~~thus choosing~~ and select the most effective option.

3.2.4 Objectives of the Emissions Inventory

The objective of the proposed national emissions inventory will be to estimate emissions of key atmospheric pollutants—sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, ozone, carbon monoxide, inhalable particulate matter (diameter less than 10 micron) and total suspended particulates—on a sub-regional basis.

3.2.5 Design of the Emission Inventory

The salient features of the proposed national emissions inventory are discussed ~~in this section~~below.

Spatial Coverage

The following types of inventories are proposed to be prepared:

1.National

2.Provincial (for NWFP, Punjab, Balochistan, and Sindh)

3.Regional (for the nine regions as listed in Exhibit 3.5)

4.Major Urban Centers (for 10 cities with population greater than 500,000).

The proposed regions and major urban centers are shown in Exhibit 3.6.

Frequency

The emissions inventory will be prepared after every two years.Collection and verification of data, compilation, and production of inventory is expected to take about ~~eighteen~~18months.

Exhibit 3.5: Proposed Regions for National Emission Inventories

Region	Administrative Divisions	Population (‘’000)	Area (km²)	Density (pop/km²)
Karachi	Karachi	9,802	3,528	2,778
Southern Sindh	Hyderabad, Mirpur Khas	10,563	87,091	121
Northern Sindh	Larkana, Sukkur	9,626	50,295	191
Southern Balochistan	Kalat, Makran, Nasirabad	3,306	209,625	16
Northern Balochistan	Quetta, Sibi, Zhob	3,206	137,565	23
NWFP and FATA	All divisions and tribal areas	20,693	101,741	203
Southern Punjab	Bahawalpur, Dera Ghazi Khan, Multan	25,348	105,503	240
Central Punjab	Lahore, Faisalabad	23,720	34,021	697
Northern Punjab	Rawalpindi, Sarghoda, Gujranwala, ~~and~~ Islamabad Capital Territory	24,317	66,727	364

Pollutants

The following pollutant emissions will be estimated.These include greenhouse gases.

aSulfur dioxide

aNitrogen oxides

aAmmonia

aSuspended particulate matter

aInhalable particulate matter (diameter less than 10 micron)

aCarbon monoxide

aOzone

aVolatile organic compounds

aCarbon dioxide

aMethane

aNitrous oxide.

Fuel Categories

Emissions from the combustion of the following fuels will be estimated:

aFuel oils

cFurnace oil

cMotor gasoline (regular, high octane, HOBC and MTBE)

cDiesel

aGas

cNatural gas

cAssociated gas

cFlared gas

aCoal

cLignite

cImported coal

aBiofuel

cFuelwood

cCrop residue (wheat stalk, cotton sticks, and bagasse)

cCow dung

cWood charcoal

aNon-energy oils

aWaste

cWood waste

cScrap tires

cWaste oils

aOthers.

Source Categories

The major source categories proposed are:

1.Combustion in Energy Production and Transformation

cPower plants

cPetroleum refining plants

cOil and gas production

c Other combustion and transformation.

2.Combustion in Commercial/Residential/Agriculture Sectors

3.Combustion in Industry

4.Production Processes

cPulp and paper

cCoke production

cCement

cFertilizer

cOthers

5.Extraction/Distribution of Fossil Fuels

6.Solvent Use

7.Road Transport

8.Other Transport and Machinery

cMilitary

cRailways

cShipping

cCivil aircraft

cOff-road

9.Waste Treatment and Disposal

10.Agriculture/Forestry/Land Use Change

11.Nature.