Monitoring and Evaluation

Any national action plan first requires a systematic monitoring mechanism in practice, which provides feedback by measuring and recording the various variables associated with their sources. It seeks to provide information on the characteristics and functioning of variables in time and space and in particular on the occurrence and magnitude of impacts of such variables. It also provides an acceptable database. As already stated in previous chapters, Nepal does not have such system in operation. Therefore a continual system monitoring of origins, pathways and destinations of variables is the prerequisite for initiating effective preventive and control measures in dealing the increasing air pollution problems in the country. Equally important is a systematic evaluation system to judge the relative significance of associated impacts. That is a monitoring and evaluation mechanism in place forms the base for future actions for air quality management in Nepal.

The chapter on baseline studies has already highlighted the current status of monitoring and evaluation practices in Nepal. The significant contribution of the previously mentioned project specific or personnel research basis monitoring works undertaken so far has been in convincing the policy makers and to some extent to the general public about the deteriorating air quality of major urban centers and the allied impacts. The first prerequisite prior to initiating any action programs in any developing countries is to create the political will and in this front these studies have achieved considerable success in Nepal. It is reflected in the Ninth Five-year Plan, the main policy document of HMG/Nepal, which also outlines the long-term Government strategy in dealing the emerging environmental issues. The main thrust of the Government strategy is on:

Therefore maximum efforts are made to incorporate the ongoing activities and the prevailing Government policy into the proposed action framework.
  1. National Pollutant Concentration/ Monitoring Network
As already stated Nepal does not have a systematic monitoring network in operation to identify the pollutant concentration at national level. Nepal, therefore, needs to establish the following three types of monitoring networks.

     
    1. The Need of National Air Quality Monitoring Network


The national air quality-monitoring network is basically for knowing the baseline conditions of "Criteria Pollutants" in the atmosphere. The criteria pollutants as defined by the USA, EC and WHO include:

The measurement of concentration of these pollutants into the atmosphere is required for following reasons: Against this background, the establishment of a national air quality-monitoring network is felt urgent. Prior to establishment of such network, the following realities need to be assessed:
        1. National Action Program on Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Network
To establish a national ambient air quality-monitoring network in near future in Nepal, following programs are proposed.
      1. The Need of Urban Air Quality Monitoring Network
The preliminary air quality studies of some of the urban centers in Nepal indicate that they are becoming polluted day by day. The reasons include:
        1. Action Programs on Urban Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Network

        2. As today, there exists no ambient air quality monitoring stations in any of the urban centers of the country. There are 58 municipalities, which can be categorized as urban centers of Nepal. Based on population, industrial activities, vehicular flow, and tourist flow urban centers are classified into following three groups to prioritize the establishment of air quality monitoring stations.
           
          Category One Category Two Category Three
          Kathmandu Valley Biratnagar, Birganj, Pokhara, Hetauda, Nepalganj, Mahendranagar Rest of the municipalities

          Based upon the above classification, it will be appropriate for Nepal to start the establishment of urban monitoring network first in the Category One, i.e. the Kathmandu Valley and the experiences gained in Kathmandu will help to expand the similar monitoring stations in category two and category three urban centers.
           

        3. Outline of the Monitoring Framework for Kathmandu Valley
Based upon the previous project specific air quality monitoring studies, the following major activities are proposed. His Majesty's Government of Nepal has already initiated a project on Establishing Air Quality Monitoring Stations in Kathmandu Valley with Danish assistance. The signing of agreement between two Governments is expected by September 2000. The program outline, organizational set up, measurement programs of the proposed project are briefly presented here.

Program Outline

Organizational Set Up

In most of the developed and developing countries, the general practices of running such monitoring stations include:

As stated in the program outline the project will look into the institutional aspect and propose the appropriate institutional set up. However, municipalities and private sector institutions will have important responsibility in the operation of such air quality monitoring stations.

Proposed Measurement Program: Stations, Parameters and Methods

The proposed monitoring network in Kathmandu Valley has taken all relevant aspects into consideration. The type of stations and location aspects are presented in table 1 and the proposed parameters and methods of measuring program in table 1.1.

Table 1 Measurement Stations
 
Type of Station Location Number of stations
traffic / roadside 5 meters from the curbside, and sampling in a height of 4 to 5 meters above terrain 
4
urban background Top of roof
1
regional/urban background East and west side, respectively, of Kathmandu Valley
2

Table 1.1 Parameters and Methods Proposed for the Measurement Program in Kathmandu Valley
Component group Parameter Method Averaging time Remarks
Particulate PM10/ PM2.5 Low/medium volume sampling, gravimetrical analysis 24 hours Equipment for PM2.5 sampling will be delivered as an option to be used in campaigns to indicate the ration between fine (PM2.5) and course 
(PM10 ) particles. 
Lead Extraction /AAS Lead will be an indicator for the effect of the introduction of unleaded petrol
Inorganic gasses
 
 

 

NO2

SO2

Passive sampling

Colorimetric analysis

1 week NO2 is a general indicator for combustion sources, and at traffic sites for vehicle emissions in particular.

SO2 is an indicator for the content of sulfur in fuels, i.e. diesel.

O3 is an optional parameter indicating photochemical activity ( smog formation) during seasons with high intensity of sunlight.

Organic gasses Benzene Passive sampling 

GC/FID

1 week Benzene is included as a general indicator for vehicular emissions of un-combusted hydrocarbons (and CO), and especially as an indicator for aromatics in unleaded petrol.

Proposed Measuring Programs: Meteorological Parameters

To provide measurement data that are representative for the meteorology in the Valley of Kathmandu, the topography of the Valley is taken into consideration. The project will assist Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (a meteorological station located at the airport) to provide hourly averages that are stored in a computer for the data assessment to be implemented in the air quality management. Furthermore, a supplementary meteorological mast will be set up at DHM to provide more representative data for the meteorological conditions in the urban center.

The parameters to be provided will be:

As the present instruments at the airport cannot provide an output format suitable for computer storage, an update of instruments will be done both at DHM premises and at the airport station. Furthermore, data logging equipment and facilities for PC data handling will be provided. A 15-meter mast will be set up for the station at the roof of DHM to provide a total height of measurement point of 25 meters above ground. This will ensure that interference from trees and high buildings is avoided. Establishment of a networking system between DHM and MOPE is also a major component of the proposed project.

Proposed Other Programs

The proposed project will also prepare the inventory of various emission sources in the Kathmandu Valley. These include:

Traffic density: inventory of roads (distances with conditions), total number of vehicles and then the traffic density. A program is to be undertaken by DOTM.

Inventory of stationary sources: MOPE and MOI are currently implementing four different projects related to industrial pollution prevention. The ongoing projects will prepare inventory of industries and their emissions in the Valley.

Fuel quality: the existing laboratories of Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) and Nepal Bureau of Standards and Metrology (NBSM) will be strengthened to import the quality fuels and avoid adulteration of fuels in the supply chain.

        1. Expansion of Urban Air Quality Monitoring Networks
The proposed above-mentioned project on the ambient air quality-monitoring network in the Valley will serve as the model for the air quality monitoring in the urban centers of Nepal. The experienced gained from the project has to be utilized to expand such facilities in other urban centers. A national target for such programs has to be reflected in the national plans and it is therefore recommended this to be reflected in tenth five year plan as establishing such networks in category two and three municipalities by 2010 and 2015 respectively.
      1. The Need of National Meteorological Monitoring Network
Although we know the source and process for gaseous or particulate emission released into the atmosphere its fate is almost impossible to predict. This is so because of the complex meteorological factors that influence subsequent pathways. The influencing meteorological factors are primarily: Further air pollution emissions are of interest at three scales: Since these scales are also time related and depends on wind speeds, the microscale effects occur at duration of minutes to hours, the mesoscale from hours to days and the macroscale at days to week.

The meteorological conditions are specifically important to determine the "creation rate" as well as the "destruction rate" so that the actual concentration of released pollutants in the atmosphere is determined. It is highlighted in the following material balance equation.

(Accumulation rate) = (all flow rates in)- (all flow rates out) +(creation rate) – (destruction rate) The knowledge of frequency of occurrence of certain meteorology is also used to determine the annual average concentration and highlighted by the following equation. (Annual average concentratio= over all meteorologies (concentration for that meteorology)* (frequency of occurrence of that meteorology)
        1. Strengthening of Department of Hydrology and Meteorology
Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) has meteorological stations in most of the airports of the country. The temperature, rainfall, wind speed, pressure, relative humidity are the monitored parameters in Nepal. However, the available data are not sufficient enough and recorded in a time series basis. As the meteorological aspects are significant in dealing with national as well as the regional air pollution problems, the strengthening of the DHM in providing the above-mentioned meteorological parameters is a prioritized area of work.
      1. Compliance Monitoring Network

      2.  

         

        As per the prevailing legislative framework, the line ministries are responsible for monitoring the compliance of the respective standards. The Department of Transport is entrusted with the vehicular emission standards. Similarly, Ministry of Industry is responsible for complying the industry specific standards.

        The current legislative arrangements are mainly due to the lack of separate department or autonomous body under the umbrella of environment Ministry. Also, entrusting the responsibilities to line ministries some how contradict the main objectives of such ministries and the monitoring aspects has been less effective. Therefore, a more effective compliance monitoring system has to be developed.
         

        1. Proposed Compliance Monitoring Network
Ministry of Population anf Environment (MOPE) Line Ministries Private Sector Non-Governmental Organizations

Non-Governmental organizations also have an important role to play in the compliance-monitoring network.

      1. Monitoring of In-house Air Quality

      2. The in-house air quality especially in mountainous regions where the fuel wood is used for cooking and space heating purposes need to be assessed mainly due to neglect in ventilation. The estimation of air pollutants in a house and its effect on the health of people living in the houses is the major area of study of rural air pollution aspects. ICIMOD, which has been involved in various studies of mountainous region, is such institution, which can significantly contribute in this area also.
         

      3. Sustainability Issue of Monitoring Network System
As there are no monitoring network systems in operation at the moment, the following issues are to be dealt prior to set up such networks to be sustainable. As practiced in many countries an independent authority usually take the responsibility of operating such networks. A separate agency or department under the umbrella of MOPE is the best organizational set up in the long run. Required staffs can be adjusted from the civil service, which will have no extra financial burden to the Government.

As currently Government is seeking DANIDA assistance in establishing the monitoring network in Kathmandu Valley, similar other projects can help to establish other monitoring networks as explained earlier. The project work will also look into the human resources development aspect during the project phase.

Once the system is established, the operation and maintenance as well as the research and development works are to be managed locally. For this purpose, following options are identified for generating financial resources:

The money generated from the above sources has to be used for the following activities
      1. Regional Air Pollution Monitoring Network
It has now become generally accepted that air pollution can be transferred in considerable quantities over distances of several thousand kilometers. In Europe, generally, the countries in the central parts of the area receive more pollution from neighboring countries than from their own sources. There is no monitoring network between the countries of South Asia. The regional studies programs carry great significance especially for Nepal and India, mainly because of following reasons. In this background, it is high time for both Nepal and India to work towards establishing a regional air quality monitoring system. Initial major works include: South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and South Asian Cooperation for Environmental Protection (SACEP) have the responsibility of initiating the regional air quality-monitoring network between two countries. ICIMOD can act as a facilitator, mobiliser and program formulator in establishing the network. As it provides linkages between environment and development; policy and technology; the initial work in this direction can be carried out by ICIMOD. It can also coordinate among the South Asian countries and provide regional perspective to the national or local activities undertaken. The regional monitoring network can also be used to create congenial environment for emission trading between two countries in future.
    1. National Emission Inventory

    2. National emission inventory is the compilation either by the measurement or (more usually) by estimations, of a map of the distribution of the emissions over a national boundary, showing the positions of the more important sources and the amounts they emit. National emission inventory also provides the basis for comparing the level of pollution among countries and opens door for mutual cooperation to reduce the pollution load. The per capita emission of a particular pollutant is frequently used these days to compare the contribution of pollutants of global or regional concern. National emission inventory also provides the basis to measure the effectiveness of national pollution prevention or control strategies. Also these can be used as a tool to develop new strategies or legislation. National emission inventory is the base of the air pollution system.
       

      1. National Action Program on Emission Inventory
As practiced in other countries, the national program on developing the national emission inventory is proposed in following two phases.

First Phase:    Estimation of emission based on emission factors used in other countries

Activities Second Phase:    Development of national emission factors and estimation of emission inventory Activities
        1. Program on Estimation of Emission Inventory
The estimation of national emission inventory is proposed for four different pollutants, namely: The methodology proposed in the estimation is primarily based on the identification of sources and the use of emission factors for various sources.
        1. Emission Sources
The first step in the process of developing emission inventory is the identification of possible sources. Possible natural and manmade sources are briefed here.

Natural Air Pollution Sources

Man- Made Sources

The sources of man- made pollution have been covering a wide spectrum of types. The accompanying table 1.2 includes a classification of major types, categories and examples of air pollution sources and their characteristic pollution emissions.

Table 1.2 Classifications of Air Pollution Sources and Emissions
 
Source Type Category Samples Pollutants
Dust Production Processes Crushing, grinding, screening 

Demolition 

Milling

Road mix plants

Urban renewal

Grain elevators

Mineral and organic particulate
Combustion Fuel burning

Motor vehicles

Refuse burning

Home heating units and power plants 

Autos, buses and trucks

Community and apartment house incinerators, open burning dums

Oxides of sulfur, oxides of nitrogen, carbon monoxide, smoke, flyash, organic vapors, mental oxide particles, and odors
Manufacturing Processes Metallurgical plants

Chemical plants
 

Waste recovery

Smelters, steel mills, aluminum refineries, 

Pulp mills super phosphate fertilizer plants, cement mills

Metal scarp yards, auto body burning, rendering plants

Metal fumes (lead, arsenic, and zinc) fluorides and oxides of sulfur 

Hydrogen sulfide, oxides of sulfur, fluorides, organic vapors, particles, odors 

Smoke soot, organic vapors, odors

Agricultural

Activities

Crop spraying and dusting

Field burning 

Frost damage control

Pest and weed control 
 

Struggle and slash burning

Smudge ports

Organic phosphates, chlorinated hydrocarbons, arsenic, lead Smoke, flyash and soot
Solvent  Spray painting
 

Inks

Solvent cleaning

Automobile assembly, furniture and appliance finishing 

Photogravure and printing 

Dry Cleaning, degreasing

Hydrocarbons and other organic vapors
Nuclear Energy 

Activities

Ore preparation

Fuel fabrication

Nuclear fission

Spent fuel processing Nuclear device testing

Crushing, grinding and screening 

Gaseous diffusion 

Nuclear reactors Chemical separation 

Atmospheric explosions

Uranium and beryllium dust 

Fluoride

Argon-41

Iodine-41

Radioactive fallout (Strontium-90, Cesium 137, Carban-14)

Source:G. R. Chhatwal, Encyclopedia of Environmental Air Pollution, vol. 1
        1. Emission Factors
In most of the countries, use of emission factors form the basis for developing national pollution inventories. The main reasons behind the use of emission factors are: Some of emission factors generally used in South Asian countries are presented in Tables 1.3 to 1.7, which can be used in estimating the national pollution inventories. These factors can only be helpful once we have the detailed information on the national emission sources. First step therefore is to develop the various sources so that the factors are multiplied to prepare the emission inventory. The various sources presented in the baseline study form the baseline in this process. And there should be a reporting system in updating the national emission sources.
        1. Calculation of Emission Factors for Fossil Fuel and Biomass Fuels

        2. The emission factor for fuels is calculated using the following equation.

          EF = S * (1-R) * 1/C * 10

          Where,

          EF = Emission factor (tS PJ-1)

          S = Sulfur content of fuel (%)

          R = Retention factor (proportion of sulfur that is retained in the

          ash after combustion), (kg/kg)

          C = Net calorific value (TJt-1)

          10 = unit conversion factor

          To have a systematic system to be followed in the country, for developing and updating the national emission inventories associated with various fuels, the information such as sulfur content, retention factor, calorific values of fuel, quantitative information’s (moisture, ash, carbon etc.) on coal, oils are required. Then with the above proposed quantitative inventories of national sources and qualitative information of fuels used, Nepal can further works towards identifying the emission factors for other sources which then only establishes the national system of updating emission inventories.

          And then the stoichometric reactions can be used for the calculated fuel flow rates of various stationary and mobile sources.
           

          Table 1.3 Emission Factors to be used for the Estimation of SO2
           
          Fuel / Industrial process Emission Factor (ER) used in south and south east Asia
          Coal

          Petroleum Products

          Biomass Fuels

          314.4 (t S PJ-1)

          226.8 (t S PJ-1)

          7.3 (t S PJ-1)

          Copper smelting

          Primary lead smelting

          Secondary lead smelting

          Primary Zinc Smelting

          1060 (kg S t-1)

          160 (kg S t-1)

          20 (kg S t-1)

          500 (kg S t-1)

          Pulping Process

          Alkaline (kraft)

          Alkaline (soda)

          Acid sulfite

          Natural sulfite semi-chemical (NSSC)

          1.9 (kg S t-1)

          1.9 (kg S t-1)

          1.5 (kg S t-1)

          5.0 (kg S t-1)

          Sufuric acid production 15.3 (kg S t-1)

          Source: Harry Vallack, SEI: Atmospheric environmental issues in developing countries.

          Symbols used (P = peta, T = tera, S= sulfur, t = tons)

          Table 1.4 Emission factors for NOx for various fuels and activities
           
            Emission factors (kg t-1)
          hard coal brown coal coke LPG Gasoline jet fuel Kerosene diesel oil RFO Naphtha natural gas
          Electricity generation 9.95 8.46   3.74 16.7   21.2 27.4 10.0 16.0 4.40
          Other transfor-mation 9.95     3.74       27.4 10   4.40
          Own use 7.5   9.0 2.63 16.7   7.46 9.62 5.84 7.34 2.24
          Iron and steel 7.5     2.63 16.7   7.46 9.62 5.84 7.34 2.24
          Chemical and petrochemical 7.5 6.38 9.0 2.63 16.7   7.46 9.62 5.84   2.24
          other industry 7.5 6.38 9.0 2.63 16.7   7.46 9.62 5.84 7.34 2.24
          civil aviation           10.5          
          road transport       18.1 31.7   27.4 27.4 27.4    
          residential 1.88 1.60 2.25 0.88 16.7   2.49 3.21 1.95   1.57
          Agri.,commerce etc 3.75 3.19 4.50 1.58 16.7   4.48 5.77 3.50 4.40 1.57

          Source: Harry Vallack, SEI: Atmospheric environmental issues in developing countries.

          Table 1.5 Emission Factors for Mobile Sources (g/km)
           
          Fuel Type Vehicle Type TSP CO HC NOx SO2 Pb
          High speed diesel
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           

          Gasoline

          Truck

          Bus

          Minibus

          Jeep

          Tractor

          3-wheeler

          Car

          3-wheeler

          2-wheeler

          3.00

          3.00

          1.50

          0.90

          0.90

          1.50

          0.20

          0.21

          0.50

          12.0

          12.0

          2.25

          3.10

          2.25

          2.25

          62.0

          22.6

          24.0

          3.70

          3.70

          1.26

          1.30

          1.26

          1.26

          8.30

          14.13

          19.00

          13.0

          13.0

          13.0

          1.40

          1.40

          13.0

          2.70

          0.20

          0.07

          1.75

          1.75

          0.39

          0.38

          0.39

          0.39

          0.13

          0.05

          0.02


           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           

          0.02

          0.02

          0.003

          Source: Shrestha and Malla, 1996

          Table 1.6 Fuel Efficiency and Average Km Traveled
           
          Fuel Type Vehicle Type Average fuel consumption (liters) Fuel efficiency (Km/l) No. of operation vehicles Average km traveled / vehicle
          High speed diesel
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           

          Gasoline

          Truck

          Bus

          Minibus

          Jeep

          Tractor

          3-wheeler

          Car

          3-wheeler

          2-wheeler

          8704

          8718

          7373

          2315

          4785

          2592

          1595

          1479

          341

          4.5

          3.0

          4.5

          8.0

          4.4

          12.5

          10.6

          11.0

          45.5

          736

          110

          372

          3555

          822

          335

          10664

          1588

          30220

          39168

          25254

          33178

          18520

          21054

          32400

          16907

          16269

          15515

          Table 1.7 Emission factors for stationary sources (g/kg)
           
          Fuel type Sector TSPs CO HCs NOx SO2
          Animal wastes Household 10.0 50.0 7.5 0.7 6.0
          Agri-residues Household

          Industrial

          10.0

          29.0

          75.0

          35.0

          7.5

          5.0

          0.7

          1.2

          6.0

          3.4

          Fuelwood Household/Commercial

          Industrial

          15.0

          18.0

          40.0

          28.5

          7.0

          35.7

          0.7

          1.9

          0.6

          0.07

          Charcoal Household/Commercial

          Industrial

          20.0

          20

          250.0

          250.0

          10.0

          10.0

          2.25

          2.25

          0.39

          0.39

          Coal Industrial 36.0 45.0 10.0 7.4 18.0
          Kerosene Household/Commercial

          Industrial

          3.5

          0.69

          38.0

          0.63

          0.2

          0.12

          2.49

          7.46

          4.25

          5.0

          Light diesel oil Industrial 0.3 0.63 0.12 2.4 6.0
          LPG Household/Commercial 0.1 24.0 0.2 5.25 0.02

          Source: Shrestha and Malla, 1996
           

        3. Emission Inventories on the Regional Level
A co-ordination between the countries of South Asia is to be established so that the various methods and emission factors used can be compared and evaluated regularly. The knowledge of inventories of sources and emissions is prerequisite in establishing the air quality monitoring networks to assess the transboundary air pollution studies. A co-ordination between the environmental protection agencies/boards or between the ministries of environment of the member countries can be the initial step towards this direction.